Sunday, November 11, 2012

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Government Default: Yes or No? by Gary North at Tea Party Economist Reprinted with Permission It is not often that readers get a clear-cut choice between two forecasts. Most forecasts have wiggle room. Not the following. 1. The United States government will default. 2. The United States government will not default. I hold the first position. John T. Harvey holds the second. He wrote a piece for Forbes defending his position: "It Is Impossible For The US To Default". I regard this as the most fundamental economic issue facing the U.S. government. I regard it as the most fundamental economic issue facing Americans under age 60. Mr. Harvey begins. With so many economic, political, and social problems facing us today, there is little point in focusing attention on something that is not one. The false fear of which I speak is the chance of US debt default. There is no need to speculate on what that likelihood is, I can give you the exact number: there is 0% chance that the US will be forced to default on the debt. That is the kind of forthrightness that I appreciate. Here is my response. With so many economic, political, and social problems facing us today, it is crucial that we focus attention on something that is both catastrophic and inescapable. The fear of which I speak is the chance of U.S. debt default. There is no need to speculate on what that likelihood is, I can give you the exact number: there is 100% chance that the U.S. will be forced to default on the debt. UNFUNDED LIABILITIES Why do I believe this? Because I believe in the analysis supplied by Professor Lawrence Kotlikoff of Boston University. Each year, he analyzes the statistics produced by the Congressional Budget Office on the present value – not future...
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refutation of Donna Brazile's, Republican Party must moderate Donna is correct the Republican Party does, need to moderate its stance. The problem is, as usual, she doesn't know who really is running the Republicans these days. And that is not uncommon, sadly the media gives such bad coverage and analysis one should not be blamed for not knowing. While I would agree that the Republicans have taken the first step off a tall cliff, Donna is assuming a lot of things in this article. For starters, Donna makes a common error of assuming that Libertarians are conservatives! And nothing could be further from the truth! The reality of the matter is, unless you really were paying attention to the Republicans and have been for some time, say the last eight years, then you might've or not, noticed the little quiet schism that has been ongoing all that time. Republicans, even Reagan Republicans, tout themselves as the small government party. The reality is the present Republican Party is just as much in love with big government as the Democrats are. Since Barry Goldwater was nominated by the Republicans in 1964 , the conservatives in the Republican Party have pretty much held sway. The result is a party that is very recalcitrant in its view of the world, one that in many ways mentally is still fighting the Cold War. That’s not to say there isn't any threats from terror organizations and other legitimate threats, but it is saying that while there are threats out there, their nature has drastically changed from the good old days. Donna's misunderstanding is typical of people from a left leaning perspective, she doesn't know what a Libertarian is, so I have to forgive her for assuming that Libertarians and tea party people are somehow one and the same. The reality is, had Donna merely...